Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military deployments around the borders of Ukraine suggest “an invasion is imminent,” according to a senior British lawmaker.
“Half of Russia’s land capability, military land capability, now have moved to surround eastern Ukraine,” House of Commons Defense Select Committee Chairman Tobias Ellwood said Wednesday. “I hope it isn’t the case, but I fear that an invasion is imminent, and that is concerning.”
Russia’s mobilization around Ukraine exceeds even the levels reached in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea from its neighbor and led to a conflict in eastern Ukraine. Putin’s intentions with the latest buildup have stoked alarm in Kyiv and Western capitals, although his next steps remain a subject of debate.
But Ellwood is inclined to think that Moscow is planning a rerun of Putin’s previous efforts to carve political satellites out of former Soviet vassal states — such as the Crimea crisis and the 2008 intervention in Georgia.
“This is all because Putin wants to look strong and reignite that idea that it is a superpower,” Ellwood told the Council on Geostrategy, a British think tank. “And now, he’s taking advantage of a disunited West.”
US AND NATO WARN RUSSIA NOT TO BLOCKADE UKRAINIAN PORTS
The massing of Russian troops near Ukrainian borders has spurred leading lawmakers in Washington to draft legislation that would expedite the delivery of “defense article transfers” to Ukraine and “authorizes $300 million in foreign military financing (lethal and non-lethal),” according to a new announcement.
“As Putin continues to escalate the situation along the border with Ukraine, we are speaking with one voice in reaffirming our steadfast support to the people of Ukraine and our commitment to protect our national security interests and our closest partners,” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, said Wednesday after the bipartisan bill passed through the committee.
That legislation would also put pressure on President Joe Biden to impose additional sanctions on 20 entities “involved” against Nord Stream 2, a Russia-Germany natural gas pipeline that would empower Putin to cut gas to Ukraine without depriving Western Europe of resources.
“I believe that all of these entities are currently involved in building out the Nord Stream 2 pipeline,” Idaho Sen. James Risch, the top Republican on the committee, said Wednesday. “U.S. law requires that such entities be sanctioned — this amendment should make Congress’s intent crystal clear.”
Russia’s buildup could amount to an elaborate diplomatic maneuver to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into making concessions in talks related to the disputed territory of eastern Ukraine, according to Western officials and security analysts.
U.S. intelligence leaders conceded recently they don’t know Putin’s plans, but Ukrainian officials worry Western allies will underestimate the Kremlin.
“We’re not trying to say that we know, date and time, when Russia will cross the front line or will cause another wave of escalation on the ground,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday. “But we certainly see strategic preparations of the Russian Federation, military preparations of the Russian Federation. And it is now in the hands of Ukraine and all those who stand for the respect for international law and sovereignty in Europe to demotivate Putin from making further aggressive steps.”
Putin’s plans could be open-ended, according to British analysts who testified earlier Wednesday before the defense committee chaired by Ellwood.
“Historically, Russia and in the past the Soviet Union have, on multiple occasions, sort of moved from an exercise posture to an operational posture,” International Institute for Strategic Studies research fellow Henry Boyd told Ellwood and the other lawmakers. “There is an entirely plausible narrative that says, this is simultaneously, an exercise to demonstrate internally that Russia can do what it wants to do … [and] give the Russians a definite backstop, a military option should they need it, under the circumstances.”
Russia may feel emboldened by the sense that Biden’s team is prioritizing threats from China and military demands in the Indo-Pacific region, Boyd added, and Ellwood acknowledged that Ukraine is hardly the top priority for Western strategists.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“Biden has spoken very firmly about this, but actually, what can we do about it? It is not the hill that we’re going to die on,” the British lawmaker said during the Council on Geostrategy event.
