Election day is tomorrow and everything is ready. Here is our full guide, video guide, and all the updates. And here you have Barclays’ take, which is quite straightforward:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
Currency investors should consider buying USD/JPY on a Clinton win, or buying USD/MXN on a Trump win, advises Barclays Capital in its weekly FX pick to clients.
“We think a Clinton victory would be positive for global risk and weaken traditional safe haven currencies. We find the JPY to be one of the most sensitive currencies to changes in the subjective probability of a Trump win and would expect a USDJPY rally following a Clinton win.
On the other hand, USDMXN would likely see material appreciation in the case of a Trump victory, which could take the cross up to 22. The MXN is the most sensitive currency to the US elections, and the anti-trade and anti-immigration rhetoric of Trump would have negative effects on the economy if his more extreme policies were to be implemented; the market is likely to treat the US elections as a binary event and trade on the assumption of the worst policy outcome for Mexico,” Barclays says as a rationale behind this call.
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