Today is November 8th, Election Day in the US. While over 46 million Americans have already voted, most still vote today. The last major national polls converged around a 3.5 point lead for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump.
Also, the more complex models, taking state polls into account and weighing the polls, show momentum towards Clinton. Trump’s recovery took him from around 15% chance to win to 35%, but now it is at 28%. This is far from certain, but there is a clear favorite.
Here is a screenshot from FiveThirtyEight. This is more favorable for Clinton than on Election Eve.
Markets certainly have a preference: Clinton, with her continuation against the disruptive Donald. Markets surged yesterday and so did the US dollar. It wasn’t only the FBI’s clearance of Clinton but also the reports about massive Latino turnout. Given Trump’s nasty comments about Mexicans, they are rushing to vote against him, at least according to the reports from states like Nevada and Florida.
But today, on election day, the greenback is correcting lower. The USD maintains most of its gains, but a natural profit taking is seen.
Here is the EUR/USD chart. The pair trades at 1.1065 just above the low of 1.1030. Resistance awaits at 1.1120 and support at 1.0960.
More:
- How to trade the US elections with currencies
- US elections: updates on 21 brokers
- US elections and forex – all the updates in one place
And the video:
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